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Election Watch
September 7, 2004
Key U.S. Senate Seats At Stake in 2004
By Craig Ruff
Currently
Republicans hold 51 seats in the U.S. Senate. Democrats
hold 48, and Independent Jim Jeffords votes with Democrats.
Not at stake in 2004
Thirty-six Republicans and 29 Democrats do not face
reelection in 2004.
Safe seats in 2004
Democrats enjoy solid leads in 13 seats up for election:
Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland,
New York, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Illinois represents a switch from Republican to Democrat.
Republicans enjoy solid leads in 10 seats up for
election: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky,
New Hampshire, Ohio, and Utah. Georgia represents a switch from
Democrat to Republican.
The contests that will determine partisan control
of the next Senate
Six Democratic- and five Republican-held seats are
up for grabs. As of late July, here is where matters stand in the
critical 11 contests:
| State |
Senator-Party |
Comments |
| Alaska |
Lisa
Murkowski-R* |
Former
Governor Tony Knowles (D) is slightly ahead (46-44%). Murkowski
was appointed to the Senate by dad, former senator and governor
Frank. Knowles slightly favored to win. |
| Colorado |
Ben Nighthorse
Campbell-R |
Republican
Pete Coors and Attorney General Ken Salazar (D) in a tight race.
As of late August, Salazar leads 47-43%. Coors has tons of money,
however. |
| Florida |
Bob
Graham-D |
GOP
matches former HUD Secretary Mel Martinez against Democrat and
former state education commissioner Betty Castor. Martinez,
the Bush favorite, handily won a come-from-behind primary on
8/31. Too close to predict. |
| Louisiana |
John Breaux-D |
Rep. David
Vitter (R) and 3 Dems—State Treasurer John Kennedy, Rep.
Chris John, and state Rep. Arthur Morrell. All are on November
ballot. If nobody wins majority, a December runoff could determine
Senate control. |
| Missouri |
Kit
Bond-R* |
State
Treasurer Nancy Farmer (D) trails by 12% in July, but Bond does
not enjoy a safe ride to reelection. |
| N. Carolina |
John Edwards-D |
Former
Clinton chief of staff Erskine Bowles leads GOP Rep. Richard
Burr by 9%, which likely will erode. Final outcome very much
in doubt. |
| Oklahoma |
Don
Nickles-R |
Former
Rep. Tom Coburn (R) faces Dem Rep. Brad Carson. As of mid-August,
Coburn leads 47-39%. |
| Pennsylvania |
Arlen
Specter-R* |
Specter
should win, but Rep. Joseph Hoeffel (D) is not without a chance
of an upset. Specter led 51-36% in July and in late August by
51-31%. |
| S.
Carolina |
Ernest
Hollings-D |
Superintendent
of Schools Inez Tenenbaum (D) is within shooting distance of
GOP Rep. Jim DeMint. In June, DeMint led 50-43%. DeMint should
be able to hold his lead. |
| S. Dakota |
Tom Daschle-D* |
Daschle
leads former GOP Rep. John Thune 50-47% in August, similar to
a June showing. Daschle very slightly favored to win reelection. |
| Washington |
Patty
Murray-D* |
In
late August, Murray leads GOP Rep. George Nethercutt 51-36%.
Murray is favored to keep her seat. |
*
Is seeking reelection
|
To regain Senate control, Democrats must win at least
one of their vacated southern seats of the Carolinas, Florida, and
Louisiana. Similarly, Republicans probably must hang on to either
Alaska or Colorado if they do not sweep the South.
As of early September, Republicans stand a better-than-even
chance of holding on to their majority and perhaps gaining 1–2
seats.
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