Michigan's Gubernatorial and Statewide Contests
October 28, 2002

by Craig Ruff

Just before Labor Day of 1998, Gov. John Engler concluded who his successor likely would be. He was heading toward a huge landslide victory over Geoffrey Fieger. His Republican Party was favored to win majorities in both state legislative chambers. Incumbent Secretary of State Candice Miller was a shoo-in for reelection. Republicans' fortunes were sky high as Engler came to the GOP state convention urging the nomination of Scott Romney for attorney general. A majority of delegates rejected his choice and turned to John Smietanka. At the moment that the balloting concluded, I am convinced that the preeminent Republican and master political strategist ruefully suspected who his successor would be.

That November, the margins of victory for Engler (740,000 votes) and Miller (1,117,000 votes) were breathtaking. Yet, Democrat Jennifer Granholm-who had never sought political office, had no history in statewide politics, possessed no household or magical name, and ran in the worst possible year for a Democrat-defeated Smietanka by 125,000 votes. It was as Governor Engler had foreseen: Granholm would defeat someone plagued similarly with a unusual name, spend four years winning over audiences and crusading on consumer issues, and in 2002 seize the mantle of "time for a change" and succeed him in office.

At the root of Governor Engler's carping and warring with West Michigan's GOP powerhouses Chuck Yob and Betsy DeVos is their rejection of Scott Romney and the consequent ascension of Jennifer Granholm. Few would disagree that Romney, with a magical name in state political lore, would have won and thereby sent Granholm back to Wayne County government. Surely Engler and Dick Posthumus have played the "what if" game constantly over the past four years.

Lt. Gov. Dick Posthumus has illuminated state politics since the 1970s-the longest serving senate majority leader; a masterful political strategist (he orchestrated holding onto the GOP's senate majority in 1984, a terrible year for Republicans); an absolute expert on policy; hugely influential on welfare and school funding reform; embracing pristine values; gregarious and courteous to a fault; infectiously good-natured.

Posthumus carries every attribute one would want in the politics of Michigan's recent past: dependability, experience, and policy knowledge. These assets propelled William Milliken, James Blanchard, and John Engler into the governorship. The recent past ignores the high-fliers of an earlier era who rose out of nonpolitical arenas to mesmerize voters-Governors Kim Sigler, G. Mennen Williams, and George Romney. Over a span of 22 years, these charismatic figures respectively held the governorship.

Charisma has reemerged. Its knight in shining armor is a woman. Charges of inexperience and vacillation injure Granholm no more than they did Sigler, Williams, and Romney. Star quality trumps the tried and true.

It is not inevitable that Granholm will win on November 5. Undecided voters could mass and overwhelmingly back Posthumus. Democratic turnout could be dreadful and Republican turnout exceptionally high. Some event or scandal could pop up out of nowhere. At the last minute, there could be a surge toward Republicans in general. But, lots of things have to break right for Posthumus and some dynamics favoring Granholm must boomerang for her to lose.

I praise both candidates. Each has detailed how they would handle the environment, education, health care, roads, and economic development. It is truly no fault of theirs that so little attention is placed on policy issues. Never have I seen the Internet used so well in Michigan to provide depth and substance on issues.

More commendable still is the candidates' willingness to inform voters of the enormous budget problems facing Lansing. For different reasons, each could have shunted aside the issue, locking it in the closet with the crazy old lady. Instead, Posthumus and Granholm articulated the size of the fiscal crisis, warned voters of budget-cutting days to come, and gave thoughtful direction to its solution.

I would never rate the 2002 gubernatorial campaign as a "10" for high-mindedness and integrity. That first debate in Grand Rapids was truly ugly: a character meltdown by each. They were awkward, petulantly combative, and utterly without visions for the state. Negative advertising has far outweighed positive reasons for electing either. The Republican advertising on the now infamous Kilpatrick memo and reparations are inexcusably insensitive to racial fractionalizing. Democrats counter with distortions of Posthumus's record on matters such as corporate ethics and Blue Cross and Blue Shield's nonprofit status.

Candidates must remember that while they can gain a little ground by attacking their opponent, the sheer volume of negative advertising is mutually destructive. Evidence abounds that voters tune out the campaigns and stay away from polls when they have had enough. More pernicious still, a number of residents who have endured the name-calling do not have confidence in the basic trustworthiness and integrity of whoever wins. How difficult then it is to govern.

Secretary of State and Attorney General

Terri Lynn Land likely will win the post of secretary of state. She has shown the greater prowess in fundraising, grassroots organization, and media placement. Her name is a bit easier to swallow than that of her opponent, who appears on the ballot as "Melvin Butch Hollowell (formerly Melvin John Hollowell)." I suspect that some number of ticket-splitters and weak Democrats will vote for Land simply to maintain a woman in the office and do penance for voting for Democrats for U.S. senator and governor.

Land or Hollowell as winner can expect to spend eight years (possibly four) as the media-anointed heir apparent to Granholm or Posthumus. Term limits assure that the next governor will not serve longer than two terms. The offices of secretary of state and attorney general will be viewed as the preeminent steppingstones to governor.

The attorney general's contest has received much less attention than that for secretary of state, although watch for considerable last minute ad buys in the contest. Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Mike Cox are worthy candidates. Cox is not known well anywhere. Peters has a base of support in his Oakland County state senate district. To the extent that voters pay attention to issues and campaign promises, Peters probably holds the edge as he has pledged to retain the focus on consumer protection. Cox has campaigned to remold the office into a more law-and-order job. It's been fifty or more years since a Republican has won the office. That's reason enough to predict that Gary Peters will win.

Back to divided government

Should Granholm win the governorship, she will lead a partisan, divided state government. Almost surely, the two Republican-nominated supreme court justices will win reelection and thereby a 5-2 conservative majority on the court. Republican majorities in both state legislative chambers probably will be continued. While a Democrat may be attorney general, a Republican may be secretary of state. This augurs a slower pace of policy change than Michigan has seen recently. Always prized, negotiating skills will be sorely needed in the budget balancing to come.